Weekly Outlook

Nifty future closed positively on weekly basis at 10778.40 levels. Nifty after opening on a flattish note continued its positive momentum throughout the week to close with a marginal gain of 0.8%. Nifty took the support near 10600 level, which is the make or break level and a small pull back rally was seen. Put Call Ratio based on open interest of Nifty increased from 1.48 levels to 1.53 levels, however, towards the end of the week it moved towards 1.51 levels. HV (Historical Volatility) of Nifty fell from 12.51 to 11.41 levels and implied Volatility (which is calculated from the movement of option prices) also fell from 12.42 to 11.89 levels as compared to the previous week.

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Technical Outlook

Nifty closed in the positive territory in the last trading session and it has now approached the downtrend line resistance both in the short term as well as medium term. Now, the momentum indicators on the daily charts are in sell mode which is a negative sign for the bulls going forward. 10800-10850 has been quite a stiff resistance on the upside and till these levels aren’t taken off the overall bias remains sideways. The Index has reached the upper end of the range as well as it has formed a rising wedge pattern on the hourly charts which is a negative pattern, hence we recommend buying only above 10810 and 10850 levels. On the lower side, 10707 is an immediate support and below those levels 10650 is the final short term support.

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